A multivariate spatio-temporal model for the incidence of imported COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 deaths in Cuba.

To monitor the COVID-19 epidemic in Cuba, data on several epidemiological indicators have been collected on a daily basis for each municipality. Studying the spatio-temporal dynamics in these indicators, and how they behave similarly, can help us better understand how COVID-19 spread across Cuba. Therefore, spatio-temporal models can be used to analyze these indicators. Univariate spatio-temporal models have been thoroughly studied, but when interest lies in studying the association between multiple outcomes, a joint model that allows for association between the spatial and temporal patterns is necessary. The purpose of our study was to develop a multivariate spatio-temporal model to study the association between the weekly number of COVID-19 deaths and the weekly number of imported COVID-19 cases in Cuba during 2021. To allow for correlation between the spatial patterns, a multivariate conditional autoregressive prior (MCAR) was used. Correlation between the temporal patterns was taken into account by using two approaches; either a multivariate random walk prior was used or a multivariate conditional autoregressive prior (MCAR) was used. All models were fitted within a Bayesian framework.

Self-uniqueness beliefs and adherence to recommended precautions. A 5-wave longitudinal COVID-19 study.

RATIONALE: Research on health-related self-uniqueness beliefs suggested that these beliefs might predict adherence to precautions against COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: We examined if comparative optimism (believing that one is less at less than others), self-superiority (believing that one already adheres better to precautions than others), and egocentric impact perception (believing that adverse events affect oneself more than others) predicted intended adherence to precautions. METHOD: We measured self-reported intentions, optimism for self and others, perceived past adherence by self and others, and perceived impact of the measures and the disease on self and others in a 5-wave longitudinal study in December 2020-May 2021 (N ≈ 5000/wave). The sample was in key respects representative for the Belgian population. We used joint models to examine the relationship between self-uniqueness beliefs and intended adherence to the precautions. RESULTS: Believing that COVID-19 would affect one's own life more than average (egocentric impact perception) was associated with higher intentions to adhere to precautions, as was believing that the precautions affected one's life less than average (allocentric impact perception). Self-superiority concerning past adherence to precautions and comparative optimism concerning infection with COVID-19 were associated with higher intended adherence, regardless of whether their non-comparative counterparts (descriptive norm, i.e., perceived adherence to precautions by others, and personal optimism, respectively) were controlled for. Comparative optimism for severe disease and for good outcome were associated with lower intended adherence if personal optimism was not controlled for, but with higher intended adherence if it was controlled for. CONCLUSION: Self-uniqueness beliefs predict intended adherence to precautions against COVID-19, but do so in different directions.

Self-uniqueness beliefs and adherence to recommended precautions. A 5-wave longitudinal COVID-19 study

Rationale. Research on health-related self-uniqueness beliefs suggested that these beliefs might predict adherence to precautions against COVID-19. Objective We examined if comparative optimism (believing that one is less at less than others), self-superiority (believing that one already adheres better to precautions than others), and egocentric impact perception (believing that adverse events affect oneself more than others) predicted intended adherence to precautions. Method We measured self-reported intentions, optimism for self and others, perceived past adherence by self and others, and perceived impact of the measures and the disease on self and others in a 5-wave longitudinal study in December 2020–May 2021 (N ≈ 5000/wave). The sample was in key respects representative for the Belgian population. We used joint models to examine the relationship between self-uniqueness beliefs and intended adherence to the precautions. Results Believing that COVID-19 would affect one's own life more than average (egocentric impact perception) was associated with higher intentions to adhere to precautions, as was believing that the precautions affected one's life less than average (allocentric impact perception). Self-superiority concerning past adherence to precautions and comparative optimism concerning infection with COVID-19 were associated with higher intended adherence, regardless of whether their non-comparative counterparts (descriptive norm, i.e., perceived adherence to precautions by others, and personal optimism, respectively) were controlled for. Comparative optimism for severe disease and for good outcome were associated with lower intended adherence if personal optimism was not controlled for, but with higher intended adherence if it was controlled for. Conclusion Self-uniqueness beliefs predict intended adherence to precautions against COVID-19, but do so in different directions.